Sachin and his centuries the debate continues…..
This is in continuation of my earlier post, does Sachin’s centuries help India win. I wanted to find out if there was some more conclusive research available on the net regarding the same subject. Well there was a lot of amateur analysis similar to mine but nothing that I can say statistically driven conclusive report. Then there was one report that was just right, which has the statistical depth and analysis which would make dataphile satisfied. While I cannot judge the accuracy of that It looked spooky enough for me to figure out that it was comprehensive enough for us less mortals…
http://tinyurl.com/5wtol5x (if you want an intellectual pursuit go thru this article it is really good work on the subject). The conclusion from all that intellectual gibberish in authors own words is as below
>“…………….leads me to conclude that the number of runs scored by Tendulkar has a significant positive impact on the probability of an Indian victory; specifically, Indian’s probability of victory increases by 18% when Tendulkar scores 120 as opposed to when he scores 10, all other things held constant. We can thus reject the null hypothesis for Model 1 in ODIs since there seems to be clear evidence that Tendulkar’s score has a positive, substantive impact on the probability of an Indian victory.”
Rohit Naimpally (Project Associate at Innovations for Poverty Action)
|SR Tendulkar (India)||33||12||45||73%|
|RT Ponting (Aus)||25||4||29||86%|
|ST Jayasuriya (SL)||24||3||27||89%|
|SC Ganguly (India)||18||4||22||82%|
|BC Lara (WI)||16||3||19||84%|
I was asked by a friend how does it compare with the rest of top players of the word. So here are the five players that I considered to evaluate Below statistic gives data for the games where these five players have made centuries and Sachin conspicuously stands out from the rest of the league. He definitely is lower than the league figures.
Now the question is did India lose those matches because of Sachin? Well the idea does not seem to have the logic. What more do you ask a batsman than a century in an ODI. So let’s look at Sachin’s performances in these matches. He has an average of 138 runs in the matches that we have lost at strike rateof 95%. Well compared to the whooping averageof 207.7 at a strike rate of 103 in the matches that he hit a century and won a 138 seems to be a little faded out but I would give absolve him of the count that he has played slow or was playing for his hundred.
If we look at those matches individually we will be able to conclude further.
So here are the stats from the matches that Sachin made a century but the team lost the match. There are 12 of these oddities and here is the date from those matches. Of the 12 matches 7 matches were situations where India made scores more than 275, which is a generally considered a winning score in a typical ODI, but India lost the games. Either the opposition played extremely well or our bowlers just did not raise to the level. Interestingly in all the matches that we lost after Sachin made a century, his contribution to the net total of the game is around 45%, it all gives us an insight into how the rest of the batsman played the game.
|Match||Sachin Score||Balls Faced||team score||Sachins contribution|
1. 137 off 137 balls with 8 fours & 5 sixes.
- India v Sri Lanka.
- Wills World Cup – 24th match, Group A.
- ODI no. 1070 | 1995/96 season.
- Played at Feroz Shah Kotla, Delhi.
- 2 March 1996 (50-over match).
- Sri Lanka won by 6 wickets (with 8 balls remaining).
India finished the 50 overs for 271/3. Only other dependable score was from Mohd. Azharuddin(72 off 80 balls). Mr Manoj Prabhakar had brilliant bowling figures of 4-0-47-0. He opened he bowling for India, he also opened batting innings and scored 7 off 36 balls.
2. 100 off 111 balls with 9 fours & 1 six.
- India v Pakistan
- Singer Cup – 3rd match
- ODI no. 1091 | 1995/96 season
- Played at The Padang, Singapore (neutral venue)
- 5 April 1996 (50-over match)
- Pakistan won by 8 wickets (with 30 balls remaining) (revised target)
India was all out for 226 in 47.1 overs. Sachin Tendulkar was stumped out at India’s score of 186/4. Five of the Indian batsmen did not cross the single digit score barrier. And only two others managed to score more than 20 runs. Pakistan had a reduced target due to rains.
3. 110 off 138 balls with 5 fours & 1 six.
- Sri Lanka v India
- Singer World Series – 2nd match
- ODI no. 1106 | 1996 season
- Played at R Premadasa Stadium, Colombo
- 28 August 1996 – day/night (50-over match)
- Sri Lanka won by 9 wickets (with 34 balls remaining)
Again the Indian score was 226 but for 5 wickets in 50 overs. Out of seven batsmen who came to crease, only Azharuddin managed to get past 20 runs score. Sachin performed with balls too with figures of 6-0-29-1, the second most economical bowler of the innings. Azhar deployed seven bowlers, out of which two had bowled with economy rate of more than 7 per over.
4. 143 off 131 balls with 9 fours & 5 sixes.
- Australia v India
- Coca-Cola Cup – 6th match
- ODI no. 1325 | 1997/98 season
- Played at Sharjah Cricket Association Stadium (neutral venue)
- 22 April 1998 – day/night (50-over match)
- Australia won by 26 runs (revised target)
India, chasing under the milky flood lights of Sharjah, had to over past New Zealand’s Net Run Rate to qualify for the finals. The complete world stood still to witness Sachin’s this innings. When Sachin’s innings ended India was 242/5 in 43 overs. Target was 276 to win or 237 to qualify for finals in 46 overs. India with the help of wonderful innings from VVS Laxman & Kanitkar made a massive score 8 runs in the final 3 overs.
5. 101 off 140 balls with 3 fours & 1 six.
- India v Sri Lanka
- Coca-Cola Champions Trophy – 1st match
- ODI no. 1640 | 2000/01 season
- Played at Sharjah Cricket Association Stadium (neutral venue)
- 20 October 2000 – day/night (50-over match)
- Sri Lanka won by 5 wickets (with 37 balls remaining)
India scored 224/8 in 50 overs with 4 single digit scorers and 4 scorers with double digits but less than 20 runs. SL got 225/in 43.5, Sachin also bowled 5-0-22-0, better economy rate than 4 other Indian bowlers of the inning.
6. 146 off 153 balls with 15 fours & 2 sixes.
- India v Zimbabwe
- Zimbabwe in India ODI Series – 3rd ODI
- ODI no. 1658 | 2000/01 season
- Played at Barkatullah Khan Stadium, Jodhpur
- 8 December 2000 (50-over match)
- Zimbabwe won by 1 wicket (with 1 ball remaining)
India finished with 283/8 in 50 overs. Sachin ended his marathon as the 8th wicket down for India at 235/8 in 46.3 overs. Ajit Agarkar and Zaheer Khan together rocketed innings with 48 runs in last 3.3 overs. If you do some elementary maths, you will figure out that 89 was the total score which rest of the eight great top order batsmen scored against the World class Zimbabwean bowling attack. Second Highest scorer was Zaheer Khan with 32. Sachin also got 6-0-35-1.
7. 101 off 129 balls with 9 fours.
- South Africa v India
- Standard Bank Triangular Tournament – 1st match
- ODI no. 1752 | 2001/02 season
- Played at New Wanderers Stadium, Johannesburg
- 5 October 2001 – day/night (50-over match)
- South Africa won by 6 wickets (with 10 balls remaining)
India managed 279/5 in 50 overs with Saurav Ganguly’s 127 off 126 balls and Sachin Tendulkar’s efforts. No other Indian batsmen crossed 20 runs mark, highlighting 1 run knocks from Rahul Dravid. Extras conceded by the South African team were the third highest contributor in Indian score.
8. 141 off 135 balls with 17 fours & 1 six.
- Pakistan v India
- India in Pakistan ODI Series – 2nd ODI
- ODI no. 2114 | 2003/04 season
- Played at Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium
- 16 March 2004 – day/night (50-over match)
- Pakistan won by 12 runs
While on the chase of 329 runs, India was 317 all out in 48.4 overs. Except Sachin, Indian innings starred 2 ducks, 2 single digit scores and 4 double-digit but less than 20 scores. Second highest contributor to Indian score was the Extras by Pakistani team.
9. 123 off 130 with 12 fours & 2 sixes.
- India v Pakistan
- Pakistan in India ODI Series – 4th ODI
- ODI no. 2238 | 2004/05 season
- Played at Sardar Patel Stadium, Motera, Ahmedabad
- 12 April 2005 (50-over match)
- Pakistan won by 3 wickets (with 0 balls remaining)
India finished at 315/6 in 48 overs. Except Dhoni(47 off 64 balls) no other significant score. Extras were again the third highest contributor. Top 3 Indian bowlers, Balaji, Nehra & Zahir, together facilitated 188 runs in their spell of 26 overs. Sachin bowled 6-0-36-1.
10. 100 off 113 with 10 fours & 1 six.
- Pakistan v India
- India in Pakistan ODI Series – 1st ODI
- ODI no. 2324 | 2005/06 season
- Played at Arbab Niaz Stadium, Peshawar
- 6 February 2006 (50-over match)
- Pakistan won by 7 runs (D/L method)
Indian innings completed at 328 all out in 49.4 overs. Irfan Pathan & MS Dhoni scored 65 & 68 runs respectively. Sachin was LBWed at 305/5 in 45 overs. India managed only 23 runs in last 5 overs costing 5 more wickets. Sreesanth conceded 75 runs from his 10 overs. Pakistan won by D/L method.
11. 141 not out off 148 with 13 fours & 5 sixes.
- India v West Indies
- DLF Cup – 2nd match
- ODI no. 2414 | 2006/07 season
- Played at Kinrara Academy Oval, Kuala Lumpur (neutral venue)
- 14 September 2006 – day/night (50-over match)
- West Indies won by 29 runs (D/L method)
India amassed 309/5 in 50 overs. Sachin Tendulkar was not out and Pathan was the only other batsman to score more than 50.
12. 175 off 141 balls with 19 fours & 4 sixes.
- India v Australia
- Australia in India ODI Series – 5th ODI
- ODI no. 2923 | 2009/10 season
- Played at Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium, Uppal, Hyderabad
- 5 November 2009 – day/night (50-over match)
- Australia won by 3 runs
India was chasing a huge target of 351 in 50 overs which was set by Australia. Indian pace attack conceded 220 runs in just 28 overs while bowling first. India began the chase in style with Sachin & Sehwag. And in the end India fall short of just 3 runs getting all out on 347 in 49.4 overs. Except Sachin Tendulkar, it was just Suresh Raina who scored past 50. Seven of the Indian batsmen returned to pavilion with single digit score.
With those individual match statistics I more than convinced that there is no co-relation between Sachin centuries and India losses. But it brings out the irrefutable fact of any team sport; one man cannot save a game if the rest of the team fails. End of it cricket is a team sport a game played by 11 to win a game and one man cannot influence the result of the game. He might be able to single-handedly save some games but not all the games.
By the way I did not know that Sachin averages a 207 in the games that he made a century and India has won….i don’t think anyone has that average in the history of the game. That is another record that will take a long time to break…..